石油的惊喜
Could the bad old day of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to upply-cut in March, the price of crude oil ha jumped to almot $26 a barrel, up from le than $10 lat December. Thi near-tripling of oil price call up cary memorie of the 1973 oil hock, when price quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they alo almot tripled. Both previou hock reulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headline warning of gloom and doom thi time?The oil price wa given another puh up thi week when Iraq upended oil export. Strengthening economic growth, at the ame time a winter grip the northern hemiphere, could puh the price higher till in the hort term.
Yet there are good reaon to expect the economic conequence now to be le evere than in the 1970. In mot countrie the cot of crude oil now account for a maller hare of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970. In Europe, taxe account for up to four-fifth of the retail price, o even quite big change in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump price than in the pat.
Rich economie are alo le dependent on oil than they were, and o le enitive to wing in the oil price. Energy conervation, a hift to other fuel and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intenive indutrie have reduced oil conumption. Software, conultancy and mobile telephone ue far le oil than teel or car production. For each dollar of GDP rich economie now ue nearly 50% le oil than in 1973. The OECD etimate in it latet Economic Outlook that, if oil price averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thi would increae the oil import bill in rich economie by only 0.25% -0.5% of GDP. That i le than one-quarter of the income lo in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economie to which heavy indutry ha hifted have become more energy-intenive, and o could be more eriouly queezed.WWw.hAOZUowEN.com